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Ron Paul Bribing Iowa Officials

A few days ago, I questioned why Iowa State Senator Kent Sorenson would suddenly abandon his support for Michelle Bachmann and back a dumber candidate like Ron Paul just a week before the Iowa Primary. Well, as it turns out, Ron Paul bribed Sorenson with $30,000 and promised an additional $8,000 a month if he would defect. While the money has got to be nice, Sorenson is going to have to waste every dime of it if he has any chance of getting re-elected in 2014. The people of Iowa are no fools and they know when their public officials are being bought off.

With regards to Ron Paul, I can’t say that I’m surprised. This racist, antisemitic conspiracy clown is one of the biggest hypocrites the Washington Beltway has ever known. On one hand, he denounces pork-barrel spending, while on the other hand ensuring that millions of federal tax dollars go towards pork projects in his district. With one hand, Ron Paul and his un-showered supporters are pointing their fingers at corrupt “neo-cons” while the other hand is simultaneously giving bribes to politicians so they can get their way.

Some of their supporters like to claim that, “Things were like that before, but everything is great now! Nobody really has anything to fear!”

And they’re right, we have nothing to fear except more of the same from these libertarian ass-clowns.

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Ron Paul Knows His Supporters Don’t Shower

Okay, time for Ron Paul supporters to start bashing the New York Times. They have an article explaining that Ron Paul’s campaign has given their volunteers some pretty strict orders.

And they say they are under strict orders: To look, dress, shave, sound and behave in a way that will not jeopardize Mr. Paul’s chances. Even before flying here on their own nickel, some students said they had been instructed to cover up tattoos and told that their faces should be fresh-shaved or beards neatly trimmed, wearing only nice clothes that one described as “business casual.”

“No tats,” another volunteer, Rocco Lucente, said as he ticked off the rules after arriving at the airport Tuesday night. No liquor, no drugs and, he said, no “fraternizing in the dorms, nothing like that.”

You would think they read my blog.

From “Very Early Iowa Prediction” on December 16th:

THE SECOND REASON why Ron Paul will under preform is because he just does. Ron Paul’s demographic is very vocal and very annoying, but a lot of them are too lazy to register to vote; and if they are registered, they are either too apathetic or stoned to get themselves out to do it. You remember that smelly kid who wore the same two hoodies everyday in school? He still smells and now he supports Ron Paul.

When Iowans Caucus, a few libertarian-minded conservatives considering Ron Paul despite of his wackiness will see the quality (or lack thereof) of the people making a pitch for Ron Paul and decide they don’t want anything to do with these losers. In addition to have never showered in the past year, Ron Paul’s supporters are exceptionally rude, inconsiderate, and just unagreeable “people” in general. Civilized people just don’t like them.

Look, I don’t care if they learn how to use a razor for something other than cutting cocaine. I don’t care if Ron Paul’s money bomb is to buy these idiots some clean clothes. I don’t even care if they give them some quarters to wash those clothes for a couple days. Ron Paul’s supporters are still obnoxious and they’re going to scare people away when Iowa voters caucus next week.

If you have to tell your supporters to stop doing drugs until after a contest, you should just forfeit.

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Bachmann’s Co-Chair Defects to Ron Paul Camp

UPDATE (12/31/2011): Ron Paul bribed Sorenson with $30,000 and a promise of $8,000 a month to secure his defection from the Bachmann campaign. It makes me wonder, “What kind of corrupt loser dumb-asses is Bachmann attracting?”

I’m so glad I don’t have a horse in this race that just keeps getting more and more stupid every day. The Iowa co-chairman of Michele Bachmann’s failing presidential campaign has just defected in order to support an arguably dumber candidate: Ron Paul.

Newt Gingrich’s recent drop in the polls has led him to be in 3rd place behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Granted, I highly doubt Ron Paul is going to finish 2nd, but it would be a huge win for Romney (and a huge embarrassment for Iowa) if he did. The defection of State Senator Kent Sorenson probably won’t matter much in the long run; it’s not like Bachmann stood a chance; but there is a slight chance it will help Paul just enough to give Mitt Romney a crushing victory over Gingrich.

That’s not really the interesting part of this, however. For me, I received this news wondering, “What kind of loser dumb-asses is Bachmann attracting?”

Seriously, who defects to support Ron Paul? It’s not as if Ron Paul going to vote for that multi-million dollar pork project in his district. And it can’t be on issues, as Kent Sorenson insists, because Paul and Bachmann are complete opposites in their idiot rhetoric.

If I had to venture a guess, I would say it was probably political posturing. A couple of friends I have in Iowa say Kent Sorenson is in pretty deep with the TEA Party movement in Iowa. Having endorsed Ron Paul for the 2012 Iowa Caucus will give him a bit more street-cred with the most aggressive activists in that crowd. I can’t say it’s a good calculation if he wants to advance his career to US Congress or any state-wide office, but it’s probably a calculation like that none the less.

Of course, it’s also possible that Bachmann just really pissed him off or left him horribly unimpressed. According to a couple of reports, the defection came just hours after appearing on stage with Bachmann at one of her rallies. Did Bachmann say something really dumb? Probably. Was it dumber than normal though? I don’t know. Or is it possible that he just felt incredibly awkward standing on a stage in front of a measly 20 supporters a week before the Caucus?

A similar embarrassing incident was one of the final nails in Sam Brownback’s campaign in 2007 just before the Ames Straw Poll.

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The only difference would be that Sam Brownback knew when to throw in the towel.

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Iraq Was A Success

I seem to be one of the few people out there willing to call Operation Iraqi Freedom a success. Therefore, for the sake of our troops that gave their lives in this conflict and their families, I feel it is important to explain why the Iraq War ended with an American victory.

Let’s start at the beginning. I’ve made it no secret that I believe the war was a good idea, even if there was no intelligence that Saddam Hussein was keeping weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The problems I’ve had with the war was that the WMD argument was the single, central argument made for attacking Iraq. Granted, WMDs are pretty dangerous and the threat of them should not be taken lightly. However, the fact that Saddam was a dictator actively slaughtering his own people without mercy was reason enough for us to take action. Yet, as critics will point out, this has nothing to do with the Global War on Terrorism. Tactically speaking, this criticism is correct. Strategically speaking, well, that’s a different story.

By now, you’ve probably heard the term “The Bush Doctrine.” If you haven’t heard of it, or if you’re not sure what the Bush Doctrine is, it’s pretty simple to understand. The Bush Doctrine was based on a theory that Democracy was contagious. In other words. If Country A and Country B are both dictatorships, it is a lot easier for the people to live passively under the dictatorship. However, if the people of Country A are given the right to vote, the people of Country B are going to want to start voting, too. “Why should the Aopians have better rights than we, the Bians?”

Applied to this scenario, the Bush Doctrine recognizes certain politically incorrect truths about terrorism. First, that most international terrorists are coming from dictatorships the United States supports for oil security and their past support for our Containment Policy of the Soviet Union during the Cold War (that’s a topic for another post). Beyond this, politically and economically speaking, it was impossible to invade Saudi Arabia or Egypt without turning the entire Arab world against us and destroying the global economy; which is entirely dependent on oil from this region. Luckily for us, Saddam Hussein was the pissy red-headed step child of the Arab world that nobody really liked. The United States, believing that democracy was contagious, could topple his regime fairly easily and give the people of the country the right to vote. In time, we’ve already begun to see this happen, other people across the Muslim world would want to have the same freedom.

Unfortunately for everybody (except the Democrats against the war and al-Qaida), things most certainly were botched after Saddam’s regime was toppled. Specifically, the coalition’s policy of De-Ba’athification. Simply put, it was a witch-hunt for anybody with ties to Saddam’s Ba’ath party; which meant dismantling the entire Iraqi government, police force, and military. At face value, this seems like a good idea, but only a small minority of these people were at all responsible for the atrocities under the regime. In other words, we kicked competent leaders and skilled gunmen out of their paid positions and tried to fill their places with incompetent and untrained police and soldiers. And guess what those former leaders and soldiers did? That’s right, they tore the country to hell and made it impossible for the coalition to detect the infiltration of international terrorists from al-Qaida and Iran. This war might have been a lot shorter if we approached the post-war era of Iraq the same way as post World War II Germany, in which members of the Nazi Party who were not directly responsible for atrocities were able to keep their positions in a new anti-Communist Party led by several imprisoned political voices during the Nazi regime; the Christlich Demokratische Union (Christian Democratic Union) is still around and thriving today with Chancellor Angela Merkel as its chairwoman. What we failed to realize was that members of Saddam’s army and police forces were simply looking for work and a way to feed their families. Even those who did some pretty horrible things were simply following orders and afraid of what his superiors would do to his family if he didn’t follow those orders. A lot more soldiers were never even given overly controversial orders. The same is true with the police force and political leaders outside of Saddam’s inner-circle.

Law and order could have been maintained during the transition. Instead, we scrapped it for ideological purity; and instead of writing this post about success in 2005, I’m writing it just before the 2012 New Year.

Iraq was still ultimately successful, however. Two of Iraq’s neighbors have already experienced democratic revolutions, one in Iran and the other ongoing in Syria. Democratic revolutions have also taken place in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Bahrain. I’m not sure what to call the uprising in Yemen. Furthermore, political protests seem to keep popping up in Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Now, as some Republican critics at this point will point out, the governments being elected aren’t exactly the most western-friendly we’ve seen. But the point is that they are being elected. We shouldn’t make the mistake of expecting too much too soon from emerging democracies. The United States certainly wasn’t born as a utopian democratic society, it took us a long time to get where we are.

The measure of success in Iraq is more than just what happens outside of Iraq, but what has already happened inside of Iraq. The democratic seed we planted in 2003 has sprouted into a thriving government strong enough to tell the United States military, “We don’t need you here anymore.” Upon the government telling us that, President Obama pulled our troops out and a lot of them were home in time for Christmas 2011. Republicans are calling that “defeat.” I’m calling that “Victory” with a capital “V.” From the outside, it looks like the government is a complete mess. It might even look like that from the inside. However, democratic republics are rarely a perfectly functioning entity. They have a hard time getting anything done and they tend to make problems a lot worse. Does that sound familiar? It should, because the Iraqi government is functioning about as well as the United States government is right now.

Is there still sectarian violence in Iraq? Yes. Is the United States the cause of it? No. That conflict has been waiting to happen for a very long time (ever since the French and British made up the most foolish borders possible in the region); and it’s just a matter of time before Iraq’s economy becomes strong enough to give people something else to do besides killing each other, or the military becomes strong enough to stop them from doing it. And if that fails, the Arab League will step in before the sectarian violence boils over Iraq’s borders, or before the Iranians try the same thing.

It’s probably like the first time someone changes a diaper on a newborn baby. Did you get poop on yourself, your stuff, and spread it around a bit more than you wanted to on your baby? Yes, probably. Do you feel like you did the best you could have done? No, probably not. But does that mean you’re unsuccessful when your child grows up and moves away from you? Of course not! Ultimately, that baby is better because it has a new diaper. You’re better because you hopefully learned from your mistakes; and the next time you change an shit-filled diaper like Saddam Hussein, it’s a lot cleaner. And the world is a lot better because they have one less shit-filled diaper to worry about smelling.

Why am I the only one saying this? That’s the easiest part of all of this. Republicans don’t want to give credit to Barack Obama for winning the Iraq War, and Democrats don’t want to give credit to George W. Bush for starting a winnable war. Democrats were only interested in retreat and defeat since the first day of the war. Republicans wanted to pull troops out under a Republican President… in truth, however, keeping troops there against the will of the Iraqi Government would have put our soldiers in CONSIDERABLE danger of arrest, imprisonment, and death-by-hanging at the hands of the legitimate government there.

In fact, I think this is the first time a war started by a Republican president has ended under a Democrat president.

The problem is that both sides are letting domestic politics dictate their definitions of a foreign war. As a result, both parties are selling short the incredible work that has been done by our Soldiers, Marines, Airmen, and Sailors. They won this war, even if politicians in Washington won’t recognize their victory, they won. They did everything they set out to accomplish and more with honor and distinction. When our politicians made mistake after mistake, they coped and relentlessly moved towards victory. The United States won this war and the war is better off because of the incredible sacrifices made by the men and women who accomplished incredible feats in Iraq.

Mission Accomplished. Finally. Congratulations.

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Why Doesn’t Iowa Pick The Winners?

If you’re following the Presidential primary on the GOP side, you’ve probably heard that Iowa has failed to pick the eventual nominee 3 of the last 5 times. It surprises people a lot of times, but it really shouldn’t.

The difference between Iowa and, let’s say South Carolina, is not the Republican voter (they are actually pretty similar, except that farm issues play a more important role in Iowa). The difference is time.

In 2008, some candidates had been running for OVER A YEAR before the Iowa Caucuses (late 2006). This year too, most of the candidates officially got in the race several months ago. In other words, the candidates have months to prepare for the Iowa Caucuses. But things move very fast after that.

After Iowa, there are only 7 days until New Hampshire.

After New Hampshire, there are only 10 days until South Carolina.

After South Carolina, there are only 10 days until Florida.

After Florida, there are only 4 days until Nevada and Maine.

After Nevada and Maine, there are only 3 days until Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota.

And we’re only a week into February at this point. Perhaps you’re beginning to see what I’m getting at here.

With six months or more, it’s possible for even the most incompetent and understaffed campaign team to lay the groundwork for victory providing they have a damn good candidate. For argument’s sake, let’s say Rick Santorum wins Iowa because he’s the most conservative candidate. He now has to move his entire campaign team to South Carolina (he’s smart enough to skip New Hampshire) and try laying the same winning ground work they had in a matter of only 15 days (1 for travel, 1 for the primary). That’s pretty much impossible.

Mike Huckabee had much the same problem in 2008. Only after Iowa, instead of going to South Carolina, Huckabee campaigned in New Hampshire. And after that, he went to Michigan; which moved their primary up really far. Huckabee lost both those states (one might say that was inevitable). By the time he got to South Carolina, he had moved his entire campaign team THREE times, had more losses than victories, and ignored South Carolina while Fred Thompson was in the state assailing him mercilessly with nobody in the state to respond. Huckabee eventually lost South Carolina, too.

Granted, in hindsight, I’m glad he lost. However, that doesn’t mean what happened shouldn’t be examined and studied by those of us who have since defected.

Ultimately, it seems as though anybody can win Iowa if they have the right politics for the Republican voters in that state because time isn’t an issue. However, the lack of time after Iowa forces us to conclude that only the candidates with the most elite and well funded campaign teams will be able to win the nomination.

That’s not necessarily a good or bad thing.

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Goodnight Sweet Prince: An Obituary for Kim Jong-il

20111220-073018.jpgLast weekend, the world lost a precious gem when Kim Jong-il, the supreme and dear leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, passed away at the age of 69. According to North Korean television, Kim Jong-il died from overwork and exhaustion associated with maintaining the amazing standard of living known in North Korea. However, we are slowly learning that Kim Jong Il may have died from his exhaustion and wounds after defeating Chuck Norris, who has not been seen or heard from in several weeks. If this is true, we can all rest assured knowing that Kim Jong-il died so that our sins may not be punished by Chick Norris.

Kim Jong-il, a trendsetter in fashion and a man of impeccable class, was survived by his loving wife Kim Young-sook; three loving mistresses; his three sons Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-chul, and the most loyal Kim Jong-un; and his daughter Kim Sul-song. These were not his only children, however, as he regarded himself as the father of every North Korean citizen.

The legacy of Kim Jong-il will live on forever as the man who created a nuclear weapon for the North Korean people and the mastermind who invented the hamburger.

Now, it will be up to the young Kim Jong-un to continue the incredible and inspiring work done by his father and grandfather before him.

Goodnight, sweet prince. Your children are in good hands.

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Food Shortages in Venezuela

One characteristic of countries living with communist economies is the presence of food shortages. Venezuela is no exception. Beef, a cornerstone of the Venezuelan winter diet, is nowhere to be found. If you’re lucky, you’ll find pork, but even supplies of that are running low. Making matters worse, it’s getting harder for the Venezuelan people to find fresh fruit at reasonable prices.

The reason for this is pretty obvious. The communist government is going out of its way to record and regulate all economic activity in their country in order to tax those evil, sulfur-scented people trying to make money by selling necessities like food to the proletariat and cap prices to control their profits, all while inflation is up nearly 30% in Venezuela. As a result, there’s a lot less incentive and a lot less capital to make the investments necessary to produce enough food for the people.

Where is it going to end? Isn’t it obvious? The people are going to get really hungry and, educated or not, they’re going to know it’s their government and not the United States that’s responsible for their misfortune. In large part, their going to see their neighbors in Columbia maintaining the standard of life Venezuelans once had prior to Chavez. More and more, the people are going to turn against Hugo Chavez and his pawns and want them out of office. Coincidentally, more and more, the people are going to realize their “free and fair elections” aren’t so free or fair.

Like with most Latin-American dictatorships, the Chavez regime will eventually cave when it can no longer keep its obligations to its military. Whether the military no longer attacks protesters or just overthrows the regime, I have no idea, but Chavez will eventually fall. Of course, getting an entire country back on its feet is going to take a really long time and it’s going to probably lead to more violence and mayhem that will probably spread through the region.

The United States, and the Nixon administration in particular, received a lot of flak for installing US-friendly dictators in Latin-American countries during the Cold War. The objective, of course, was to contain communism and that led to some really shady partnerships around the world. Our shared goal of containing communism was actually how our previously friendly relationships with Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden were started.

However horrible these dictators might have been, they did provide a level of economic and international security for the people in those countries relative to what they would know under neo-Leninist communism and its inevitable aftermath.

Now, I’m not advocating a renewal of the policies that led to these dictatorships around the world. The fact that we’ve supported these dictatorships in the past (and the present in oil-rich Arab nations) plays an undeniable role in why we’re so despised in the underdeveloped world. However, that doesn’t mean – as one Presidential idiot with a lot of tin foil hat supporters would argue – that we should just walk away because it doesn’t concern us.

IT DOES CONCERN US! The more turmoil there is in Latin America, the more that turmoil will spill over our southern border. The more economic instability that exists in the region, the more farmers will turn to drug cartels to feed their families and the more readily available illegal drugs will be here in the United States. Of course, Ron Paul’s fix to this is to simply legalize drugs like heroin and cocaine. Here in Porter County, every two or three years, drug fiends will rob a gas station in the dead of night and killing the clerks in the process. Sure, the process of dealing the drugs might be safer, but how the addicts get their fix will be bloodier than ever when even more Americans tragically get hooked on these dangerous narcotics.

While installing dictatorships in Latin America is certainly the wrong thing to do, we shouldn’t turn our backs on our neighbors. As we’ve heard during some of these debates, we need to make it beneficial to be a democratic ally of the United States. That means providing trading incentives and military support when appropriate. In some cases, providing a US military presence would be beneficial, too. Believe it or not, our foreign bases actually provide some of the best ambassadors our country can send out: men and women who love the United States so much that they volunteered to serve our nation. And just like our domestic military bases, foreign bases provide enormous economic boosts to the communities surrounding them.

Unfortunately, where we often lose our way is expecting a government to provide tactical or strategic support for an immediate mission rather than expecting the preservation of certain constitutional liberties for the people in those countries.

For the good of the people in these countries and the stability of our western hemisphere, we need to stay actively involved in the troubles of our American neighbors.

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Very Early Post-Iowa Dropout Predictions

Earlier this morning, I wrote a post containing my early predictions for the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. Now, as I promised, an equally early prediction of who will drop out after the Caucuses.

Ready? Here are my drop-out picks.

1. Rick Santorum

And…?

And nothing. That’s my list. Let’s first discuss Rick Santorum before going into why the others aren’t on the list. Rick Santorum has had a hell of a tough time convincing people he can be President. I’m not sure what it is, but he doesn’t look Presidential. When you look at and listen to him, you think of the kids who got their lunch money stolen from them in grade school… and possibly into college. You don’t see the powerful and inspirational leader the people want to have at the helm. On paper, Rick Santorum should be a top tier candidate and the damage he would cause President Obama in Pennsylvania and the mid-west would be catastrophic for Democrats.

Rick Santorum’s shortcoming was his failure to convince people he would make a strong leader… Which is sad because Santorum was (and likely still is) a very strong conservative leader.

Rick Santorum said in a recent radio interview with Sean Hannity (I hate Sean Hannity – I caught this flipping through radio stations looking for the debate last night) that he would consider a second place finish in Iowa a victory. I think if he places 3rd, it would be a victory. And if he placed third, I think he would be inclined to stay in the race. The problem is that he’s more likely to finish in 7th than 3rd (or 4th, for that matter). To Santorum’s credit, he knows when he’s licked and I suspect he’ll get out after a 4th or lower place finish.

Contrast former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with novice Congress woman Michele Bachmann, who will stay in the race unless she finishes dead last. Bachmann has the ego it takes to be President; but not the brain cells, experience, or leadership talents. Unfortunately for us AND herself, Bachmann doesn’t know when to throw in the towel because she’s too busy listening to herself make stupid noise to look at poll numbers. Coming in last place might get the message across, but I think last place is going to be Jon Huntsman’s trophy in Iowa. Bachmann will give up after she loses in South Carolina.

Jon Huntsman will stay in only because Iowa isn’t important to him. Even before the Governor began campaigning, Huntsman was spending all of his time and energy in New Hampshire. He’s not winning there either, but his staff and supporters at least deserve the chance to vote for him. He’ll give them that much, but he’ll drop out of he doesn’t finish in the top two or three there. If that somehow happens, he’ll drop out after losing in Florida.

Rick Perry is in so many ways the Fred Thompson of 2011/2012. He rode in on a giant wave of support that he utterly destroyed by stumbling every chance he got. He’s also going to hang around until after South Carolina to do as much damage as he can to Mitt Romney or whoever else he doesn’t like.

Ron Paul is about as stupid as Michele Bachmann. The only difference is that he at least has a base of support, albeit an unbathed and socially dysfunctional base of support. He’s not going to win anything, either.

Newt Gingrich will stay in unless he places 4th or lower because of his New Hampshire momentum and popularity in South Carolina. Mitt Romney will stay in until at least Florida.

A lot can happen in two weeks. Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin my play kingmaker, Newt might ditch his wife, Mitt Romney might stop using hair products… Okay, maybe I’m pushing it with that last one. My point is that a lot can still happen and these predictions assume that none of it will.

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Very Early Iowa Prediction

I’m proud of myself. I didn’t get sucked into any of the GOP candidates’ campaigns. Granted, it can be fun helping to make a candidate, but none of the GOP field really deserved any support (let alone mine). Still, people get crazy this time of year; and the Iowa contest is right around the corner.

Well, I missed last night’s debate with the exception of a few minutes on the radio where Bachmann was doing her damnedest to make Ron Paul look smart during their argument over Iran. I also heard Newt’s comments about rebalancing power by subpoenaing judges who make controversial decisions. That’s an interesting idea, but it works both ways. What happens when a Democrat-controlled Congress subpoena a conservative judge for an anti-abortion decision? I think there are better ways to reign in the courts.

Anyway, my point is that I don’t know how the last debate will affect the turnout in Iowa. However, I’ve been asked for an early prediction, so here it goes.

1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Ron Paul
4. Rick Perry
5. Michele Bachmann
6. Rick Santorum
7. Jon Huntsman

Here’s why.

Very recent polling has suggested Gingrich’s numbers are slipping in the Hawkeye state. That’s in large part to everyone else attacking the candidate leading the anti-Romney bandwagon with the most momentum. The result of which is that Newt Gingrich is vulnerable in Iowa. Mitt Romney knows that if Newt wins Iowa, Newts strong poll numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina will propel him to the nomination.

For Mitt Romney to win the nomination, Gingrich has to lose Iowa. It doesn’t have to be Romney that wins Iowa, as long as its anybody but Newt. The problem is that the only candidate in position to beat him is Mitt Romney. Not only does he have the support, but Mitt Romney also has the aged infrastructure he built four years ago.

Aged or not, however, it doesn’t matter. Newt, not having spent enough time campaigning, lacks the infrastructure all together. That’s a tactical advantage for Romney, who hasn’t spent much time in Iowa this time around, either.

That will change. Knowing he can’t let Newt win this first contest, Mitt will probably spend much of the next three weeks in Iowa. Unless there are any enormous events; such as a Huckabee, Palin, or Cain endorsement; I predict Mitt will win Iowa.

Newt will come in second. In the polls, Ron Paul is in a close third place. That tells me one of two things: either Iowans are really stupid or the participation in this year’s contest is really low. I suspect the latter. Ron Paul’s strong showing at the Iowa Straw Poll was in large part because so few people cared enough about the candidates to travel to Ames.

However, low turnout and a close third or not, Ron Paul will come in a distant third (maybe even fourth). There are two major reasons for this. The first is that Iowa is a caucus state. If you don’t know how it works, I’ll make it easy to understand. A room of Iowans gather from the same precinct (1,874 of them). They listen to pitches from the campaigns, make pitches themselves, and then vote. Each room elects a delegate from their county to the state convention, which determines who to send to the GOP National Convention. In other words, unless you win a room, you’re not going to win a delegate. This has a way of separating top tier candidates from bottom tier candidates. Ron Paul’s idiot brigade in Iowa isn’t going to have the majority in many of the precincts, which will deflate his numbers.

THE SECOND REASON why Ron Paul will under preform is because he just does. Ron Paul’s demographic is very vocal and very annoying, but a lot of them are too lazy to register to vote; and if they are registered, they are either too apathetic or stoned to get themselves out to do it. You remember that smelly kid who wore the same two hoodies everyday in school? He still smells and now he supports Ron Paul.

When Iowans Caucus, a few libertarian-minded conservatives considering Ron Paul despite of his wackiness will see the quality (or lack thereof) of the people making a pitch for Ron Paul and decide they don’t want anything to do with these losers. In addition to have never showered in the past year, Ron Paul’s supporters are exceptionally rude, inconsiderate, and just unagreeable “people” in general. Civilized people just don’t like them.

Rick Perry will probably come in fourth, but his traditional conservative message and recent faith-based messages may play well enough to put him over Ron Paul.

Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann are going to be in a battle for 5th place. Rick Santorum probably has the highest “favorable” rating of any candidate, which may make him a lot of people’s second choice if they are convinced not to vote for Romney, Gingrich, or Perry. Bachmann is just riding the Sarah Palin wave. She’s a woman with a big mouth but inferior brain. I still like Elizabeth Dole, so I don’t have a problem with women. It just do happens that these two (Palin and Bachmann) are obnoxious. Luckily for them, obnoxious seems to be the new black (or red?) in the Republican Party. I think Bachmann will win only because her support early in the campaign have her a networking connection Rick Santorum never managed to build for himself.

Jon Huntsman will probably come in last since he’s focused his efforts in New Hampshire.

Tonight, I’ll give my predictions for who will drop out after Iowa.

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China’s First Aircraft Carrier and Why It’s A Big Deal

20111215-065303.jpgThe world is getting one of its first unclassified looks at the Aircraft Carrier Varyag. What kind of name is Varyag for an aircraft carrier, you wonder? It’s a Chinese name. And no, this they aren’t selling to us. It’s China’s first aircraft carrier and its size rivals the largest counterparts in the US fleet.

Officially, China says the aircraft carrier Varyag will be used for research and training purposes. Perhaps they want to research how they as the world’s largest polluter are damaging the world ecosystem? And perhaps they want to do military training for blowing it up.

Of course, China shouldn’t be trusted at its word on this one.

Now, many of you may think the era of Naval power is long over. Therefore, this aircraft carrier was a colossal waste of money and time, but is otherwise no big deal. That’s not entirely true.

That misconception is probably rooted in the fact that all of the United States’ conflicts since WWII, and all of the world’s conflicts for that matter, have featured third world countries with land access (except the Falklands). The overwhelming majority of these conflicts have involved asymmetric warfare, too. If Osama bin Laden had access to carriers, stealth bombers, and other modern weapons, he wouldn’t have been a terrorist, but a respected world leader in the Arab world.

China is not quite as inadequate to fight a traditional conflict. Just ask the bruised and battered people of occupied Tibet. Since then, the People’s Liberation Army of China has literally copied the plans for many high-tech Soviet and Russian weapon systems and begun producing their own versions of them. They still aren’t more capable than the United States systems, but the gap is slowly closing.

So why is this a big deal, again? Two words: Force Projection.

No, that’s not what happens when a Jedi throws something with the Force. We’d be totally screwed if China had that.

Force projection is a nation’s geographic ability to create a show of force. China’s capabilities with its troops behind their own borders and no significant international bases is limited to its immediate neighbors.

By contrast, the global system of US military installations gives us the ability to create a show of force almost anywhere in the world. Coincidentally, this is why Russia was so upset over US bases north of Afghanistan. Even though our force was aimed south, an aggressive military force on the border of the Russian Federation was totally unwelcome.

The importance of responding to a global conflict anywhere in the world from all direction is critically important and proof that Ron Paul is an idiot. Our international bases play an important role in force projection.

But just as significantly are our Aircraft Carriers. Within days (or less), US Airpower can be at full strength anywhere in the world. It sends a VERY strong message to whoever receives it: STAND DOWN OR ELSE!

Well, pretty soon, China is going to have that ability.

Jon Huntsman and other politicians think China is simply an economic threat to the United States. In fact, they are in the verge of becoming a military threat to our allies and our interests, too.

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